Continuing Conflicts that Create Refugees, June 2008

Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in June 2008 and three improved, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch.

• Posted on Jul 4, 2008

Chad: National Alliance rebels mounted new offensive against Idriss Deby govt early June, seizing several eastern towns but not advancing on capital. Govt claimed victory in major battle in eastern town Am-Zoer, some 160 killed. UN refugee agency suspended operations in 12 camps on Sudanese border, resumed 17 June. Irish EUFOR troops came under fire while monitoring fighting. Govt accused EUFOR of siding with rebels, Sudanese army of attacking frontier garrison. Chadian and Sudanese army generals met 24 June in Dakar to discuss border patrols.

Djibouti/Eritrea: Fighting erupted at Ras-Doumeira border area following increased tensions over disputed territory. 10-11 June clashes reportedly left at least 9 Djibouti soldiers dead, more injured both sides. AU, UN condemned Eritrea military action. Djibouti said incursions continuing. Eritrea blamed Djibouti for attack, denied border dispute and rejected dialogue."Djibouti president accuses Eritrea over border fight ?"

Nigeria: Insecurity surged in theoil-rich Niger Delta. Militant groups launched a series of large-scale attacks, including the first ever assault on a deep offshore oil field, after army raids on militant bases in early June. Progress on the much-delayed Niger Delta peace summit faltered, as groups protested President Yar Adua's failure to meet key preconditions.

Uganda: June saw a further breakdown in fragile peace process amid reports of fresh LRA attacks and threats from neighbouring states to wage an armed offensive against LRA leader Joseph Kony if the impasse continues. Kony called for a resumption of talks late in June but still has not signed the final peace deal since first refusing in April.

Zimbabwe: state-sponsored violence further escalated ahead of the 27 June presidential run-off vote, as the Mugabe regime continued its brutal crackdown to secure victory. Opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai was detained five times over the month, opposition campaigning was repressed and the polling day itself marked by widespread voter intimidation. Up to 200,000 have been displaced in rural violence. Mugabe stood as the sole candidate after Tsvangirai withdrew on 22 June over election conditions. Mugabe's election for a sixth term in office drew strong regional and international condemnation.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

Improved Situations
North Korea, Serbia, Taiwan Strait
The situation improved in North Korea, after the government submitted a long-awaited declaration of its nuclear programs on 26 June. In response, the U.S. opened up the possibility of removing the DPRK from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. A new round of six-party talks is expected shortly.

China and Taiwan also saw improvement in cross-Strait relations, agreeing to resume key transport ties at the first bilateral talks in over a decade.

The situation also improved in Serbia.

July 2008 Outlook
Conflict Risk Alerts: None
Conflict Resolution Opportunities: None

CrisisWatch N°59, 1 July 2008
Source for this Message: International Crisis Group

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