Continuing Conflicts that Create Refugees, July 2009

Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and one improved in July 2009, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch.

• Posted on Aug 3, 2009

Download the full report: CrisisWatch72.pdf

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, China (internal), Chechnya (Russia), Nigeria

Afghanistan: Violence increased significantly ahead of the 20 August presidential elections. A major U.S.-led operation was launched in southern Helmand province to secure the area ahead of the polls, and at least 71 ISAF troops were killed during the month, the highest monthly toll since the start of the 2001 invasion. The Taliban responded with a wave of attacks, including an ambush on vice presidential candidate Mohammad Qasim Fahim, which he survived. There is a substantial risk that violence will continue to rise as the polling date draws closer, with the Taliban towards the end of the month announcing that they will attempt to disrupt the elections. CrisisWatch identifies a Conflict Risk Alert for Afghanistan for August.

China: Ethnic tensions erupted into bloody riots 5 July in Urumqi, capital of northwest Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. State media report 197 dead, mostly Han Chinese, 1,721 injured, over 1,500 arrested. Clashes began when police confronted Uighurs leading protest march demanding full govt investigation into 25 June deaths of Uighur factory workers. Chaos returned 7 July when thousands of armed Han rioted through Urumqi. Chinese govt dismissed claims that riots due to long-standing resentment of Han Chinese among Uighurs, said U.S.-based World Uighur Congress leader Rebiya Kadeer masterminded protests.

Chechnya: Month marked by insurgency violence and murder of prominent activist Natalia Estemirova, investigating rights violations by security forces in Chechnya, kidnapped in Grozny and killed 15 July; body found same day in Ingushetia. Prompted widespread international outrage and renewed focus on rights abuses in Chechnya; some fellow activist alleged murder sanctioned by President Kadyrov. Estemirova's organization Memorial 19 July announced suspension of work over safety concerns for its employees. 6 killed by suicide bomb attack in Grozny 26 July. Russian security forces shot dead 5 militants in 2 separate incidents 13 July. Policeman shot dead in Grozny 17 July.

Nigeria: Violence in northern states again surged as the radical Islamist group Boko Haram launched a series of fierce attacks on security forces targets from 26 July, prompting a brutal crackdown by government troops and eliciting painful memories of November’s deadly sectarian unrest. The attacks led to the death of at least 400 people, possibly many more, and left over 4,000 displaced before police apprehended group leader Yusuf Mohammed. He was shot dead hours later while trying to escape, according to the government. The attacks come as the government’s amnesty and proposed DDR program for the South’s restive Niger Delta looked increasingly fragile, as militant groups and regional governors threatened to withdraw th eir support over the government’s failure to address economic grievances.

Unchanged Situations
Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikis tan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved situation:
Guinea-Bissau: The situation improved with the holding of timely and peaceful second-round presidential polls on 26 July, following the death of President Vieira in March this year. Whilst a step forward, the new president, Malam Bacai Sanha of the ruling PAIGC, faces massive reform challenges in addressing recent political unrest and widespread poverty.

August 2009 Outlook

Conflict Risk Alert
Afghanistan

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Honduras: The situation remains deadlocked in following June's civil-military coup, as talks between the de facto government and ousted President Manuel Zelaya broke down repeatedly during the month. However, hopes of a resolution were raised towards the end of the month, as both the military and the de facto President Robert Micheletti said they could be willing to accept the deal proposed by mediator Oscar Arias. The deal would see Zelaya return as president but with heavily curtailed powers.

CrisisWatch N°72, 1 August 2009
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6256&l=1&m=1

Source for this Message:
CrisisWatch

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