Deteriorated Situations: Afghanistan, Côte d'Ivoire, Libya, North Caucasus (Russia), Somalia, Somaliland, Thailand, Uganda, Yemen

Download the full report: Crisis watch-91.pdf

Afghanistan: Month saw continued standoff between President Karzai and opposition following Sept elections, and spike in violence with several large-scale Taliban attacks. Lower House 12 Feb called on Karzai and Supreme Court to dissolve allegedly pro-govt special tribunal investigating elections fraud, set up by Karzai in Dec; Independent Election Commission 21 Feb said will not collaborate with tribunal's "unconstitutional" recount of vote in 24 of 34 provinces; analysts warned revising results could spark renewed violence. Lower house 27 Feb elected as new speaker ethnic Uzbek Abdul Ibrahimi, seen as compromise candidate; ended deadlock preventing legislation in parliament. At least 38 killed, including several police, in 19 Feb Taliban raid on bank in Jalalabad, deadliest single attack since June 2010; 12 killed 18 Feb in 2 bomb attacks in eastern Khost and Nangarhar provinces.

Côte d'Ivoire: Violence escalated in Abidjan and western regions as former president Laurent Gbagbo, losing candidate in Nov run-off election, refused for third month to cede power to Alassane Ouattara. UN peacekeeping mission UNOCI announced 6-year ceasefire broken 24 Feb, as pro-Gbagbo troops clashed with northern Forces Nouvelles rebels backing Ouattara in west, and fighting broke out for first time in Abidjan between troops loyal to Gbabgo and defectors now aligned with Ouattara. UN said fighting "changes the game". UNHCR 18 Feb announced over 38,000 IDPs registered in western regions; 25 Feb said 5,000 refugees fled across border in 24 hours. Dozens injured 21 Feb as fresh clashes in Abidjan erupted between Gbagbo, Ouattara supporters; at least 6 killed when pro-Gbagbo troops fired at Ouattara supporters to disperse protests. Pro-Ouattara gunmen claimed responsibility for killing at least 10 soldiers during ambush on army convoy 22 Feb.

Libya: Hundreds feared killed, thousands injured during ongoing violent unrest after demonstrations against Muammar Qadaffi's 41-year rule began 16 Feb in Benghazi. Tens of thousands protested throughout country over following days, despite govt 17 Feb announcing release of political prisoners, formation of committee to consider reforms. Tensions escalated starting 17 Feb as security forces and mercenaries reportedly attacked protesters; worst violence reported in Benghazi, Tripoli. Qadaffi's son Saif al Islam 21 Feb warned of civil war as unrest spread to Tripoli; aerial attacks on protesters started same day. Several top officials, high-level diplomats, military officers 22 Feb onward defected. Qadaffi 22 Feb appeared on state television defying calls to quit. Leaders worldwide denounced violence; UNSC 23 Feb strongly condemned crackdown, 27 Feb voted unanimously to impose sanctions, refer Libya to ICC. Late-month reports of full-scale rebellion with large parts of country under opposition control.

North Caucasus: (Russia) Guerrillas 18 Feb killed 3 Muscovite tourists, 19 Feb attacked ski resort near Mount Elbrus, Kabardino-Balkaria Republic (KBR), causing govt to suspend plans to develop region and triggering anxiety over 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics security. Presumed attackers later inflicted casualties on pursuing security forces. Attack one of several during Feb in formally quite peaceful KBR, underlining degree to which it has become major area of Islamic guerrilla activity. Earlier in month KBR president Arsen Kanokov said security forces unable to contain insurgents, local group described as informal anti-wahhabi militia attacked prominent Islamic militant's home. Russian President Medvedev 22 Feb made surprise visit to North Ossetia. In video released 7 Feb insurgent leader Doku Umarov claimed responsibility for 24 Jan bomb attack on Domodevo airport, threatened further attacks. 2 high-level officials sacked 8 Feb over Domodevo attack. Authorities 8 Feb detained as suspected accomplices family members of 20 year-old Ingush man accused of involvement in bombing. Violence continued elsewhere in North Caucasus, including suicide bombings in Dagestan 14 Feb and thwarted suicide attack in Chechnya 15 Feb.

Somalia: Intense fighting between govt-allied forces and militant Islamist Al-Shabaab inflicting casualties on both sides, dozens of civilians killed, injured. Transitional Federal Govt (TFG) forces and AMISOM 19 Feb attacked Al-Shabaab positions sparking 2 days intense fighting; at least 20 killed, dozens injured as stray mortars hit IDP camps. 6 AMISOM troops killed, 12 wounded in 23 Feb fighting in Mogadishu. AMISOM, TFG and allied groups 24 Feb launched coordinated attack in Mogadishu and along Ethiopian, Kenyan border; Ethiopian troops reportedly involved in fighting, Kenya closed border. In response, Al-Shabaab moved additional forces to Mogadishu and Beletweyn, 27 Feb warned of retaliation against Kenyan govt. In other violence suicide car bomber 21 Feb killed at least 10 people near police training camp in Mogadishu. At least 5 reported killed, 10 wounded 15 Feb when govt forces opened fire on civilian crowd protesting against Al-Shabaab. Human Rights Watch 14 Feb stated all parties to armed conflict responsible for indiscriminate attacks on civilians since May 2010, killing or injuring thousands. Parliament 3 Feb extended TFG mandate for further 3 years.

Somaliland: Self-proclaimed Somaliland republic forces 7 Feb fought with rebel militia in Sool, Sanag, Cayn (SSC) region, claimed by both Somaliland and Puntland. Local media reported more than 30 killed, 60 injured, over 3,000 displaced and at least 150 soldiers defected citing "clan massacres" of Harti sub-clan, Dhulbahante. Follows Dec reports Puntland hired private security firm to train forces.

Thailand: Hostilities broke out along Cambodian border near disputed Preah Vihear temple after Cambodian court sentenced 2 Thais to prison for espionage: at least 3 Thai, 5 Cambodian soldiers killed as forces exchanged fire 4-7 Feb. UNSC 14 Feb called for permanent ceasefire; both govts 22 Feb accepted Indonesian monitors in area following informal meeting of ASEAN FMs. In face of rising "yellow shirt" demonstrations calling for PM Abhisit's resignation, govt 9 Feb invoked Internal Security Act in Bangkok, granting security forces more power to control protests. Deputy PM Suthep 17 Feb said general election will be held "before June". In southern Pattani province, suspected Islamist militants 3 Feb killed 5 Buddhist villagers, 11 Feb killed 3; car bomb in Yala town 13 Feb injured 17.

Uganda: Election Commission 20 Feb announced incumbent President Museveni winner of 18 Feb presidential election with 68% of vote. Main opposition leader Kizza Besigye won 26%, rejected results claiming election was "total farce". Head of EU observer mission noted "severe compromise" of level playing field; U.S. 22 Feb noted diversion of govt resources for partisan campaigning and heavy deployment of security forces on election day but said polls "reflect will of the people". Suspected National Resistance Movement sympathisers 23 Feb attacked at least 6 journalists covering Kampala mayoral election causing serious injury.

Yemen: Escalating nationwide deadly protests demanding regime change, mainly in Sanaa, Taiz, Aden: at least 24 people killed in daily clashes with security forces since 16 Feb. Troops 25 Feb fired on protesters in southern city Aden, killing around 10, despite President Saleh's 24 Feb order for security forces to protect demonstrators. Protesters demanded President Saleh's resignation and immediate regime change; Saleh 27 Feb vowed to fight "with every drop of blood" to remain in power, although earlier in month offered to form national unity govt, promised not to run in 2013 elections, not to pass authority to son. Main political opposition group Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) 28 Feb refused offer of unity govt, planned 1 March "Day of Rage", but hopes for dialogue remain. Several leaders of country's 2 most important tribal confederations, Hashid and Baqil, 26 Feb joined anti-regime protests. Late-month spike in violence against security forces, mainly in south; unclear who is behind attacks.

Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burma/Myanmar, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Ecuador, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan), Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Sudan (Northern), Sudan (South), Syria, Tajikistan, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara,
Zimbabwe.

Improved Situation: Egypt

March 2011 Outlook:

Conflict Risk Alert:  Afghanistan, Côte d'Ivoire, Libya, Yemen

Conflict Resolution Opportunity:  Yemen

International Crisis Watch: CrisisWatch N°91
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch/2011/crisiswatch-91.aspx