Tajikistan saw fighting erupt around Khorog - the regional capital of the autonomous province of Gorno Badakhshan - following the killing of the regional head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB) General Abdullo Nazarov. The government quickly blamed the murder on fighters loyal to former opposition fighter and Ishkoshim District border-guard chief Tolib Ayombekov, imposing a media-blackout and launching a large-scale security operation which has reportedly caused scores of fatalities, including civilians.
Syria fierce fighting spread to the centres of Aleppo and Damascus for the first time since the beginning of the uprising, prompting government airstrikes and forcing thousands to flee to neighbouring countries. Rebels also extended their control over many rural areas, including several crossings on the Iraqi and Turkish borders. The Assad regime suffered the high-profile assassination of 4 senior security officials in Damascus, in addition to a number of increasingly high-profile defections.
Mali the transition remained stalled despite the return of interim President Traoré and the announcement of new transitional institutions. Prime Minister Modibo Diarra refused to resign and the military junta continues to interfere in the government's internal affairs. Meanwhile, with the threat of foreign military intervention looming, Islamist hardliners consolidated their grip over the country's north, ousting Tuareg rebels from their last stronghold in the region.
Madagascar Political tensions intensified in following the failure of bitter rivals President Rajoelina and former president Ravalomanana to resolve outstanding issues in the elections roadmap ahead of the Southern African Development Community's 31 July deadline. A failed mutiny by disgruntled soldiers on the outskirts of Antananarivo demonstrated the growing impatience of many with the political process. It appears increasingly likely that elections scheduled for November will be delayed.
India, clashes between Bodo tribesmen, Muslim Bengali migrants in Assam state killed 56, displaced thousands, triggered military intervention to contain riots, impose curfew on most troubled areas; violence started when unidentified men killed 4 Bodos, provoking retaliation against Muslims against backdrop of territorial disputes. 1 killed, 6 injured in army convoy blast 31 July in Assam. 23 July clashes between Muslims, Hindus in north killed 1. Police 28 June killed 17 Maoist rebels in Chattisgarh state, arrested 2; rights activists 11 July claimed victims local tribesmen. Court 30 July sentenced 21 Hindus to life imprisonment for death of 11 Muslims during 2002 sectarian violence. Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) rebel chief Sangma arrested 31 July. Indian FM Mathai 4 July met Pakistan counterpart Jilani to discuss peace, security; India 5 July said Pakistan should prosecute authors of 2008 Mumbai attacks.
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burma/Myanmar, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Malawi, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaidjan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, South Sudan, Sudan, Thailand, Timor Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe
August 2012 Outlook
Conflict Risk Alert -None
Conflict Resolution Opportunity - None
Source: CrisisWatch http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch/2012/crisiswatch-108.aspx