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Mali: France launched a military operation to oust the coalition of rebel Islamist groups that has controlled the north of the country for the past year and who in December suddenly began advancing further south. Combined French and Malian forces swiftly recaptured the main northern towns from the rebels, and moved on their last stronghold, Kidal, at the end of the month, raising hopes that the region will swiftly return to government control. Military advances have, however, also prompted fears of further destabilisation, abuses of the civilian population, especially ethnic Tuaregs, by the Malian armed forces, a spillover into neighbouring states, and a backlash from extremists. The military approach also risks diverting attention from the fragile political process in Bamako, where deep divisions and the potential for further military meddling raise questions about the ability of Mali's leaders to secure the transition and adequately address northern grievances.

Egypt: the second anniversary of the revolution and a court ruling on football violence in Port Said stadium last year ignited days of violent demonstrations and unrest across major cities which left dozens dead. President Mohamed Morsi declared a state of emergency and curfew in Port Said, Ismailia and Suez. As a senior military official warned that the state verged on collapse, rival political groups met on 31 January, pledging to support a serious dialogue and condemning violence. Protests are expected to continue in February.

Iraq: demonstrations against Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, sparked by the arrest in December of Sunni Finance Minister Rafie al-Issawi, gathered pace, threatening political stability. What initially looked like a confrontation between Sunni political leaders and a Shia-led government soon escalated into a broader campaign against al-Maliki, as Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr and personalities associated with the highest Shiite religious authority, the Marjaiya, threw their weight behind the opposition. On 26 January, Sunni, Kurdish and Shiite lawmakers voted to block al-Maliki from seeking a third term, but al-Maliki's supporters have rejected the law as illegal.

Myanmar's: government stepped up its military campaign against the Kachin Independence Organisation. Government troops advanced on the ethnic rebel group's headquarters in Laiza close to the Chinese border, as fighter jets bombed Kachin rebel positions. The U.S., UK and other international actors expressed concern over civilian casualties and displacement and the potential impact of the campaign on efforts to deepen Myanmar's reforms and national reconciliation.

Venezuela: President Hugo Chávez's ill health kept him away from the swearing-in ceremony for his third term as president on 10 January. The opposition is now challenging Chávez's continued tenure in office as unconstitutional. Amid signs that both sides are radicalising, Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk alert for February.

Guatemala: a court order requiring ex-military leader and former President Efraín Rios Montt to stand trial for genocide raised hopes of advances in the country's battle against impunity. Montt, who denies the charges, stands accused of orchestrating the massacre of 1,771 indigenous people during the 36-year civil war that left an estimated 200,000 dead and more than 1.5 million displaced.

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo_an revealed in December that the national intelligence agency had started a new round of talks with Abdullah Öcalan, jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The talks, which enjoy wide political support, may offer a genuine opportunity to end Turkey's long-standing Kurdish conflict. Confidence in the process, which is also supported by the opposition and Kurdish opinion leaders, was further buoyed in January as the government was seen to be acting more publicly and inclusively, allowing representatives from the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party and the head of the largest pro-Kurdish civil society organization to pay a rare visit to Öcalan. In the meeting, Öcalan reportedly said the era of armed was struggle over.

Elsewhere, Sri Lanka parliament's impeached the Supreme Court Chief Justice, marking a further disregard for the rule of law and prompting protests and international condemnation. Tensions escalated between Pakistan and India after soldiers from both countries were killed in cross-border incursions across the Line of Control that divides Kashmir.  North Korea announced plans to carry out further rocket launches and a nuclear test in response to the UN Security Council's resolution condemning its December rocket launch and expanding existing sanctions.  Relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan were strained by a violent confrontation between Kyrgyz citizens and residents of Uzbekistan's largest exclave in south Kyrgyzstan.

Unchanged Situations: Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China/Japan, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of, Congo,  Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran,  Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuwait,  Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Northern Ireland,  Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Somaliland, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkmenistan , Uganda, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: Guatemala

February 2013 Outlook

Conflict Risk Alert: Egypt, Mali, Venezuela

Conflict Resolution Opportunity: Mali, Turkey