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Kenya: A terrorist attack by Somali militant group al-Shabaab on the Westgate shopping mall in Kenya left at least 67 dead and hundreds injured. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack was in retaliation for Kenya's military action in Somalia over the past two years, and vowed that this attack would be the first of many. The attack heralds a difficult period for Kenya, with the risk of recriminations high, despite President Uhuru Kenyatta's call for national unity (see our commentary).
Central African Republic violence worsened, religious tension is rising and the humanitarian situation is dire. Rebel Seleka fighters, who six months ago seized power, have become increasingly fractured and volatile. Transitional President Michel Djotodia has been unable to rein them in, instead dissolving the alliance in what was widely perceived as an attempt to distance himself from their abuses. Seleka violence in the north west has displaced thousands and prompted fierce clashes with loyalists of former president François Bozizé, other rebel groups and local communities. African Union peacekeepers are preparing to deploy, but thus far the international community has struggled to contain the crisis (see our recent report and commentary).

Sudan: Khartoum's decision to lift fuel subsidies prompted widespread violent protests in Sudan's main cities in late September. National security forces quickly clamped down on the demonstrators, with reports from the doctors' union suggesting over 200 civilians killed.

Guinea: Long-awaited legislative elections in Guinea were marred by violent clashes in the run-up to polls. With the results still pending, opposition claims of widespread massive fraud prompted fears that a disputed outcome could trigger further violence between supporters of the opposition and President Alpha Condé's Rassemblement du Peuple de Guinée (RPG) (see our latest report and commentary).

Philippines: Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) rebels launched a major assault on Zamboanga City in the southern Philippines island of Mindanao. Around 200 people, mostly rebels, were reported killed in the ensuing fighting with security forces, and over 100,000 were displaced. The attack highlighted the risk that peace talks between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) could be derailed by disaffected groups (see our latest report).

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, China (internal), China-Japan, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Egypt, Eritrea , Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Korean Peninsula, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Pakistan, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations:
Iran: Iran's new President Hassan Rouhani took unprecedented steps towards jumpstarting nuclear talks, mending relations with the U.S. and ending sanctions that have crippled the country's economy (see our recent report). Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with his counterparts from the U.S., Russia, China and the EU on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, and said that Iran was prepared to negotiate aspects of its nuclear program, although its right to enrich was "not negotiable". President Rouhani spoke with U.S. President Barack Obama in the first direct talks between U.S. and Iranian leaders since the 1979 revolution. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endorsed Rouhani's approach, calling for Iran to show "heroic leniency" in nuclear negotiations.

October 2013 Outlook

Conflict Risk Alert: Guinea
Conflict Resolution Opportunity: None